What were the Key Themes for Copper in 2025?

Last year was a dramatic year for copper, with tariffs from the US and mine disruptions reshaping trade flows and supply.

Demand for copper is driven by global electrification efforts and sentiment looks to be growing as discussions around AI usage and the resulting need for data continues.

This positive demand outlook combined with supply disruptions and uncertainty led to record breaking copper prices at the end of 2025. These high prices have continued into the start of 2026, with LME (London Metal Exchange) copper cash prices breaking US$13,000/tonne for the first time in history on 5 January 2025.

Where was copper mined in 2025?

By far the number one miner of copper globally is Chile, which mined more than five million tonnes of copper in 2025. The country accounted for nearly a quarter of global supply and is set to remain the top producer of mined copper out to 2050, according to Benchmark’s Copper Service.

The largest copper mine in Chile, and in the world, is BHP’s Escondida mine located in the Atacama Desert. In 2024, BHP laid out a US$14bn strategy in 2024 to expand its Chilean copper operations to offset potential production losses by the end of the decade. In 2025, BHP increased output at the mine 10% year-on-year.

In November 2025, Chile held a general election which resulted in the Republican Party candidate José Antonio Kast securing victory. This marked a decisive shift in the country’s politics, as Kast will take over from Gabriel Boric who leads the current socialist government.

It is likely that Kast will look to leave the state-owned mining enterprise Codelco intact, as the company is the world’s second largest copper miner.

After Chile, the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) is the next largest producer of copper, accounting for 15% of global supply. CMOC’s Tenke mine and Ivanhoe’s Kamoa-Kakula mine are the largest assets in the country.

How was copper mining disrupted in 2025?

The year was unfortunately marked by several severe and often unprecedented disruptions at copper mine sites around the world. These combined to result in very slow growth in mined copper output of just 1.3% in 2025 compared to 2024 levels.

The largest of these was the huge landslide at Freeport-McMoRan’s Grasberg copper mine in Indonesia in September 2025. The disaster resulted in the loss of seven lives. Mining operations were suspended and output at the mine decreased 43% in 2025 compared to 2024. To put the scale of this disruption into perspective, the amount of lost production is about the same size as the world’s third largest copper mine, Collahuasi in Chile.

Ivanhoe’s Kamoa-Kakula mine in the DRC saw mine output reduce 8% in 2025, and was significantly lower than pre-2025 forecasts. Although the site had successfully ramped up throughout 2024 and benefited from high grade ore, seismic activity and flooding in May 2025. This reduced access to the highest ore grades, subsequently reducing output. There were no casualties.

An underground mine collapse at Codelco’s El Teniente site in Chile in July 2025 resulted in six fatalities. The incident was triggered by an earthquake that exceeded the design limits of the mine and resulted in a 10% reduction in output in 2025 compared to 2025.

Of the 20 largest copper mines, 11 saw reduced output in 2025 compared to 2024. Although not due to a disrupting event like those above, Collahuasi mine in Chile (operated by Glencore and Anglo American) saw a 27% downgrade and production due to mine sequencing, increased ore complexity and ongoing water constraints.

How have US tariffs impacted copper trade?

The other major theme of 2025 for the copper industry was US President Donald Trump’s tariff regime.

Initiated by a section 232 investigation in copper imports, Trump announced a 50% tariff on copper imports at the start of July 2025. The ensuing market frenzy led to large premiums of  refined copper sold on the CME (Chicago Mercantile Exchange) compared to that sold on the LME. This opened up significant arbitrage opportunities for traders.

However, by the end of July, the Trump Administration announced that refined copper was exempt from the tariff and the arbitrage plummeted back down to earth.

Uncertainty remains on the tariffs, with market participants anticipating that refined copper will be included in the tariff regime when an update is issued on 30 June 2026.

The threat of US tariffs led to a surge of import activity. Notably, even though Chile reduced its total refined copper exports 13% in 2025 compared to 2024 due to increased smelting capacity and disruptions, its exports to the US increased 28%.

With reduced availability for refined copper from Chile, other importers had to look elsewhere.

For Europe this included significantly increasing its imports of Chinese refined copper. In 2023 the region imported no refined copper from China, this increased slightly to 2kt in 2024 and shot up to 37kt in 2025. Although European imports of Chinese copper pale in comparison to its imports from Chile (albeit reduced) and the DRC, it is notable that European buyers are increasingly open to sourcing from countries they had previously not been willing to accept material from.

Overall, positive demand sentiment, supply disruptions and tariff chaos shaped the copper market in 2025. It is likely that these themes will shape 2026, as well. Indeed, since the US$13,000/tonne barrier on the LME was passed on 5 January, the record was broken the following day and, at the time of writing, the price is still above the 13k mark.

However, some traders are sceptical that such high prices are fully supported by market fundamentals. Even so, this caution has yet to slow the bullish momentum which sees copper continue to break price records throughout January.

For more information, visit Benchmark Mineral Intelligence: benchmarkminerals.com