Shell: The Role of Critical Minerals in 2100

Shell has published its 2026 Energy Security Scenarios report, mapping three distinct pathways for the global energy transition through to 2100.

For mining executives, these scenarios carry particular weight as each one hinges on access to critical minerals that the sector supplies.

In March 2026, the British energy giant released the third edition of its Energy Security Scenarios report, following instalments in 2023 and 2025.

The document presents three separate scenarios – Archipelagos, Surge and Horizon – each offering different projections of how the planet's energy system could evolve by the year 2100.

The scenarios attempt to make sense of the current energy landscape, where 80% of global power comes from fossil fuels yet renewable capacity has grown tenfold in the past decade. Shell's analysis synthesises various externalities, including trade wars, artificial intelligence and climate politics, to paint three distinct pictures of the world at the turn of the next century.

Dr Mallika Ishwaran, Shell's Chief Economist and a key member of the Shell Scenarios team, appeared on The Energy Podcast on 15 March 2026 to discuss the company's methodology.

"Scenarios are genuinely a multidisciplinary effort," Mallika said. "The process of developing the scenarios draws on knowledge and expertise in energy markets and modelling."

Security over sustainability

The Archipelagos scenario imagines a world where countries retreat into themselves, one where trade disputes flare up, mineral supplies get weaponised and governments prioritise what they can control domestically over what could be cheaper or cleaner from abroad.

Global GDP reaches roughly US$315tn by 2060 in this scenario and coal remains in the energy mix far longer than climate activists would prefer.

Archipelagos sees China racing ahead with solar deployment to reduce its dependence on imported oil and gas, but elsewhere the transition stutters. The document warns that in this world "priorities shift towards domestic resources and opportunism in trade, both of which tend to favour fossil fuel use".

By 2100, temperatures have climbed 2.5C and fossil fuels still account for a quarter of global energy.

Protectionist policies slow renewable deployment as countries struggle to secure materials needed for batteries and solar panels. Trade barriers increase costs and extend project timelines, making it harder for nations to transition away from domestic fossil fuel resources.

Technology-driven transformation

Shell's Surge scenario tells a different story, one where technology companies become unexpected energy giants. Their data centres consume 5,000 terawatt-hours by 2050, roughly 8% of global supply, forcing them to build their own renewable capacity. These firms start mass-producing solar panels, batteries and hydrogen equipment. Global GDP balloons to US$400tn by 2060 as artificial intelligence boosts productivity across industries.

Small modular nuclear reactors come of age in the 2040s, first powering data centres, then factories and eventually container ships.

China launches five nuclear-powered vessels in the late 2040s, and by 2090 the technology has taken over the shipping industry. Despite higher energy demand, this world hits net zero emissions by 2080. Temperatures peak at 2.1C in the 2080s before edging down to 2.0C by century's end.

The technology sector's entry into energy infrastructure accelerates innovation in ways traditional energy companies cannot match. Their focus on efficiency and scalability drives down costs for renewable technologies, making clean energy accessible to developing nations.

Meeting Paris agreement targets

Horizon maps out what meeting the Paris Agreement actually requires.

Net zero by 2050 demands retiring functional power plants early, implementing high carbon prices and banning petrol cars. Even then, the world overshoots 1.5C. The scenario relies on capturing more than seven gigatonnes of CO₂ annually by 2050, compared with 50 million tonnes today, a 140-fold increase.

The pathway requires unprecedented international cooperation and political will to implement unpopular policies. Carbon capture technology must scale at a rate never before seen in industrial history, requiring trillions in investment.

All three scenarios encounter the same obstacles: copper, lithium, nickel and cobalt. Demand for copper alone triples to 60 million tonnes yearly by 2050 in Shell's Horizon scenario. The challenge is not geological reserves but geopolitics, as China controls much of the refining capacity and new mines take 15 years from discovery to production.

The company stresses these are not forecasts, noting that "only governments can create the framework necessary for society to meet the Paris Agreement's goal". What they do show is how quickly plausible futures diverge depending on decisions made in the next decade.