GEM: China Coal Mine Expansion Poses Methane Risk

A new study by Global Energy Monitor (GEM) reveals China is responsible for more than half of the world's pipeline of new coal mines, and warns this could lead to a substantial increase in global methane emissions, a potent greenhouse gas.

The report indicates that China is developing new mines with the capacity to produce 1.28 billion metric tonnes of coal annually. GEM's analysis included large mines with a minimum annual capacity of 1 million tonnes as of April.

GEM is a US-based organisation that tracks fossil fuel and renewable energy projects worldwide. Dorothy Mei, GEM Project Manager, explained the driving forces behind this expansion: "Expanding coal production capacity is currently a national policy priority and a political task. State-owned enterprises, which dominate the sector, are often mandated to fulfil this objective."

The study found that 35% of this new capacity is already under construction, signalling a potential surge in production within the next three to five years. This growth is further supported by China's system of long-term contracts, which, according to Mei, "guarantees the profitability of coal companies."

Methane emissions and climate impact

China's existing coal mines are responsible for 70% of global coal mine methane emissions from large-scale operations. If all proposed projects are completed, this figure could rise to 75%, the report warns.

Methane is a greenhouse gas produced during coal mining operations. While it has a shorter lifespan in the atmosphere compared to carbon dioxide, it is significantly more effective at trapping heat. Since the Industrial Revolution, methane has contributed to approximately one-third of the rise in global temperatures.

The report highlighted the contradiction between China's coal expansion and its climate commitments: "The surge in new production starkly contrasts with China's dual carbon neutrality targets," Mei noted.

Global context and coal production trends

China's coal sector expansion is occurring against a backdrop of growing coal capacity outside the country. An earlier GEM report showed that global coal capacity outside of China increased for the first time since 2019.

China, already the world's largest producer and consumer of coal, mined a record 4.66 billion tonnes in 2023, according to data from its statistics bureau. The country's existing large-scale coal mine capacity stands at 3.88 billion tonnes per year, nearly half the global total.

GEM's Global Coal Mine Tracker, which monitors 6,646 coal mines and projects across 70 countries, provides further context to China's dominance in the sector. It reveals that coal mines producing at least 1 million tonnes per annum account for 92% of global coal production, with China alone responsible for almost half of this output.

The top three coal-producing countries – China, India, and Australia – collectively account for more than 80% of global coal capacity.

Expanded tracking and implications

The 2024 edition of the Global Coal Mine Tracker has expanded its coverage of Chinese coal mines by lowering the capacity threshold to 600,000 tonnes. This change has resulted in a significant increase in the number of listed mines and, consequently, in the reported figures for capacity and production.

This more comprehensive view of China's coal sector underscores the scale of the country's impact on global coal production and associated methane emissions. It also highlights the challenges facing global efforts to reduce reliance on fossil fuels and mitigate climate change.

The expansion of China's coal sector occurs as many countries are attempting to phase out coal power. The GEM report noted that 2023 saw the lowest level of coal power plant retirements since 2013, indicating a slowdown in global efforts to transition away from this carbon-intensive fuel source.

As the world grapples with the need to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, China's continued investment in coal mining presents a significant challenge. Mei concluded: "The scale of China's coal expansion not only impacts global methane emissions but also sets a precedent that could influence other countries' energy policies and climate commitments."

A third GEM report pointed to how, although coal power is on the wane, coal-fired power station proposals continue to outpace cancellations