Coal Power 'on Wane but China & India Account for 86%'
Almost all of the coal-power capacity under development is concentrated in just 15 countries, with China and India alone accounting for 86 per cent, according to insight from Global Energy Monitor (GEM), a body that tracks fossil fuel development worldwide.
The number of countries developing new coal-fired power plants has decreased significantly over the past decade, it also shows.
GEM's latest Global Coal Plant Tracker results also show that countries with coal power under development have fallen from 75 in 2014 to 40 in 2024. The report reveals that 98% of coal power capacity currently in pre-construction and construction phases is concentrated in just 15 countries, with China and India accounting for 86% of the total.
Despite this concentration and projections suggesting global coal demand could be peaking, GEM says new coal-fired power station proposals continue to outpace cancellations.
In the first half of 2024, more than 60 gigawatts (GW) of coal capacity was newly proposed or revived, compared to 33.7GW shelved or cancelled during the same period.
The signing of the Paris Agreement in 2015 prompted a global shift away from coal. GEM says to date, 75 countries have established carbon neutrality goals for 2050 or earlier, and around 100 countries are already coal-free or have set a coal phase-out date for 2040 or earlier.
There has also been a steep drop in coal capacity under development globally. GEM data shows the pipeline of coal-under-development has fallen by 62% compared to a decade ago.
No major coal producer has a phase-out period
However, GEM notes none of the 15 countries leading continued coal plant development have established a coal phase-out target.
While Indonesia, Vietnam, and South Africa have negotiated Just Energy Transition Partnership (JETP) agreements to transition away from coal, their plans still allow for some growth in coal power.
The report also shows China's involvement in coal development extends beyond its borders. It reveals China is involved in coal projects in Indonesia, Zimbabwe, Laos, Kyrgyzstan, and Mongolia, including some capacity proposed after China's 2021 pledge to stop building new coal plants abroad.
GEM adds that several countries, including Bangladesh, Pakistan, the Philippines, and Turkey, are continuing with plans to develop a backlog of proposed coal plants in the face of local opposition, policy changes, finance moratoriums, and other challenges.
The report provides detailed updates on coal development in the 15 countries with the largest capacity under development.
China
China dominates global coal power capacity, with 1,147GW spread across nearly 3,200 units. GEM says China drastically reduced approvals for new coal power in the first half of 2024, granting permission to only twelve projects totalling 9.1GW.
India
India's coal capacity is the second largest globally, at 239.6GW. GEM reports that India's coal plant development increased significantly in the first half of 2024, surpassing all of 2023's proposals.
Indonesia
Indonesia, the world's largest coal exporter, plans to increase coal production and consumption. GEM notes that over 1GW of coal-fired capacity entered construction in Indonesia in the first half of 2024.
Bangladesh
Bangladesh ranks fourth globally for coal power under development. GEM says the country faces ongoing challenges including a dollar shortage, high imported coal costs, and unpaid electricity bills.
Zimbabwe
Zimbabwe has maintained its position as sub-Saharan Africa's coal development leader. GEM reports that the country has more capacity under development than it did a decade ago.
Vietnam
Vietnam has tripled its operating coal fleet in the last decade. GEM reveals that while Vietnam continues to operationalise new coal units, its total capacity under development has dropped significantly since 2014.
Laos
Laos produces most of its electricity through hydropower. GEM notes that the country has ongoing plans for domestic coal production and increased coal exports through to at least the end of the decade.
Russia
Russia has 37.8GW of operating coal power capacity. GEM reports that the country has retired or transitioned to gas some 7.7GW of coal capacity in the last decade, while commissioning 2.8GW of new coal capacity.
Kazakhstan
Kazakhstan relies heavily on coal, which fuels two-thirds of the country's power generation. GEM says Kazakhstan's Ministry of Energy has developed a plan foreseeing 4GW of new coal capacity by 2035.
Turkey
Turkey has 4.8GW of coal capacity remaining under development, which GEM reports is largely stalled due to local resistance and legal challenges.
South Africa
South Africa operates the world's sixth-largest coal fleet but faces an ongoing energy crisis. GEM notes that the country is seeking to renegotiate its JETP deal to extend the life of its existing coal plants.
Pakistan
Pakistan saw little change to its proposed and operating coal capacity in early 2024. GEM reports that the country is grappling with several issues, including national debt and tariff disputes.
Philippines
The Philippines' moratorium on new coal plant permits has generally slowed development, but GEM says the government continued to approve exemptions for coal project proposals in early 2024.
Kyrgyzstan
Kyrgyzstan tripled its coal capacity under development from 2022 to 2023. GEM reveals that as recently as 2021, the country had no active coal plant proposals under development.
Mongolia
Mongolia's coal capacity under development sits at 1.9GW. GEM reports that this capacity slowly declined from a high of 8.1GW in 2014 and then sharply fell in 2023.
"Despite the global trend away from coal, our data shows that new coal proposals continue to emerge in several countries," a GEM spokesperson said. "This ongoing development, particularly in Asia and Africa, poses significant challenges for global efforts to reduce carbon emissions and mitigate climate change."
