Copper Shortage 'Will Thwart Global 2050 EV Plans'

A study published by the International Energy Forum (IEF), researchers warns copper production levels are insufficient to meet global  2050 electric vehicle (EV) ambitions.

The research suggests that, even without the energy transition, the world needs 115% more copper than has been extracted at any point of human history prior to 2018.

The study is co-authored by Dr. Lawrence Cathles of Cornell University and Dr. Adam Simon from the University of Michigan.

Its findings underscore the complex challenges facing the global automotive industry and policymakers as they navigate the transition to more sustainable transportation options. 

Dr. Cathles points out a "disconnect" between the intentions behind decarbonisation efforts and the realities of such a transition. The study projects that annual mine output of copper will increase by 82% by 2050, reaching 37.1 million tonnes. 

But the report says electrifying the global vehicle fleet by 2050 would need an additional 55% increase in new copper mines coming online by mid-century.

For net zero to happen, this would require the equivalent of 194 new copper mines, or approximately six new mines every year until 2050, say the authors. 

In contrast the business-as-usual demand for copper, would require around 35 new mines, or roughly one per year.

Global copper resources are 6.6bn tonnes

The report points out that global copper resources are not an issue, being an estimated 6.66bn tonnes. The challenge, they say, is extracting these resources quickly enough to support both baseline global development and vehicle electrification efforts.

A key issue highlighted in the report is the time required to bring new copper mines online. Historical data shows new mines that began operations between 2019 and 2022 took an average of 23 years from resource discovery to production. 

This timeline, they say, poses a huge obstacle to rapidly scaling up copper production to meet the demands of widespread EV adoption.

The study's authors propose a more pragmatic approach: transitioning to 100% hybrid vehicle production by 2035, rather than focusing solely on battery electric vehicles. 

Hybrid electric vehicles require only slightly more copper than traditional internal combustion engine vehicles, unlike EVs, which demand almost twice as much.

This hybrid-focused strategy, says the report, would place “significantly less strain on copper resources and would not require major grid improvements”.

 While acknowledging this solution is not perfect, the authors say it is “a more realistic approach to balancing environmental goals with resource constraints”.